Danilo Petrucci (Tech 3 KTM) on the ground – a symbolic image for the season opener of the once proud top team of Hervé Poncharal. Neither driver scored any points in Losail’s double race. Without many falls and failures by the drivers in front of them, this would not have succeeded again in Portugal. The team boss from France seems to many observers nowadays as if he doesn’t care at all, as long as the budget is right.

About the reasons for the Yamaha high and the KTM debacle

It was not only seen in Losail, but also at the European opener the trend continued: Yamaha is at an all-time high and KTM has so far been experiencing an absolute debacle. There are many reasons why Yamaha is so successful and why the oranges on the other hand stumble so much, and this article is intended to address them. One fact is obvious. Due to the loss of the concession status and its test advantage in the previous year, KTM lost two huge advantages from the previous year in one fell swoop in the second Corona year. At that time, they were able to benefit from the early lifting of the Covid-19 lockdown in their country and, from May, they were able to test intensively with the completely new Michelin tires supported by the manufacturer. This included, among others, Spielberg, Brno and Misano on routes which were then on the calendar and where it was not by chance that KTM riders were promptly at the forefront.

Cal Crutchlow in the gravel bed – recently in the leather of Monster Energy Yamaha, because “the British Buldogg” had switched from Honda to Yamaha to replace the plump Jorge Lorenzo as test driver.

Which is why Jorge Lorenzo was no longer an option for Yamaha
The former world-class driver had his appearances in the first Corona year more as a so-called “social media playboy” than as a training-eager athlete. This alone wasn’t a problem for Yamaha so far, but when he sat on the bike it quickly became clear that he would probably never reach his previous speed again. He is not talking about his disastrous year at Honda, but rather the data records that the Monster Energy Yamaha Team had from the Mallorcan who lives in Ticino, Switzerland. He came back to his previous brand in nineteenth for Honda in the World Championship and already appeared to be struggling with motivation issues. His earlier leather suits didn’t seem to fit him anymore, he looked so out of shape physically, as you could even see on his face.

Jorge Lorenzo Interview before his last 2019 Grand Prix race for Repsol Honda. For his fans it was sad to see how the multiple champion literally went under. We saw him present on innumerable routes in 2019, back then as just a shadow of himself, compared to his glorious years before that.

Not met the requirements
As you can see from the example of Stefan Bradl at Honda, a test driver can become an emergency driver in a flash. In his case, this even became the so-called “Providurium” because Marc Marquez developed into a “permanent injured” in 2020. Basically, too, a driver must have the pace to be close enough to the lap times of the works drivers. In addition, as in the example of Sylvain Guintoli at Suzuki, a good technical feel to advance the project. At least in the former, Lorenzo was visibly lacking, with which he simply did not meet the requirements. When Crutchlow had to leave Honda, Yamaha stepped in, and we see the result after 3 laps. It doesn’t get better than 3 wins in three races and the regular drivers are full of praise for “Krauti”, as many Germans affectionately call him.

Cal Crutchlow just before the start of one of his last races for LCR Honda – the look on his face matched how little it suited him to have to leave Honda at the end of a long and successful career. He seemed all the more motivated during the tests in Qatar to push his new Yamaha team forward with all their might. As the success shows, the Englishman did a great job.

The difference between the best and the backbencher team is often small

Since the reasons for Yamaha’s success are clear, some reasons for KTM’s sporting decline have already been explained at the beginning of this report. The line between the world’s best and the backbench team is often tiny in MotoGP. The example of Yamaha last year showed that when there was a lack of confidence in the front, even undisputed top riders like Quartararo and Viñales often seemed helpless enough. With Crutchlow’s successor in the LCR Honda Team Alex Marquez since Losail you can see how bad he and his teammate Nakagami currently look with such problems. At Yamaha, the mix with Cal as test driver, the two works drivers and the Petronas Yamaha SRT Team with Morbido and Rossi is obviously ideal. The latter two should not be copied too early if you look closely at some results from 2020.

Cal Crutchlow on the Monster Energy Yamaha M1 – from his eyes the pure determination speaks and if you end up in the gravel as a test driver like him, you undisputedly pushed to the limit in Losail. We dare to say that he would have had a chance of making the top ten in the race if you compare his test times with those of other drivers.

KTM – despite the so-called “noble tester” in a tough situation
When using the term mentioned in the headline in connection with Dani Pedrosa, we often had to smile for several reasons. For some Spaniards we know personally, the short test rider from KTM in his home country is more of a tax evacuee than a Spanish nobleman in his home country. Apart from that, his last season at Repsol Honda was not very glorious. Apart from that, nobody has a posture like him, the most extreme is the difference between him and Petrux. Danilo Petrucci loves his mom’s pasta far too much to want to go for a six-pack instead, like many of his opponents. In any case, the likeable northern Italian looked almost desperate on the KTM during the first 3 laps, and he lacks the top speed of his former Ducati enormously.

Petrux before the start on his beloved factory Ducati, which he should currently miss extremely, here before the start in Barcelona 2020. In the race he drove KTM Pol Espargaró to despair when he drove away again and again on the long straight until this one made an impossible braking maneuver before turn 1 and was eliminated from the race with a crash. The frustrated Catalan then even threw stones out of the gravel in the direction of the long-lost Italian, although he could not do anything about his fall, as records show.

The missing man at KTM – there are two of them
On the one hand, the oranges with the two works drivers Oliveira and Binder now painfully see how much they miss Pol Espargaró as a development driver. The two current, undisputedly fast drivers obviously have far too little experience in MotoGP to advance the team technically. We have already explained how little Petrux has benefited from Dani Pedrosa’s development work. It became clear early on that Lecuona was a wrong choice. Promoting him to the premier class with two Moto2 podiums was based on pure wishful thinking that he had discovered him as the next Quartararo.

Pol Espargaró at the Repsol Honda in Losail – an unusual picture, even if there is still a lot of orange color involved. After his technical failure in Portugal, the moment of truth begins for him from Jerez. In Losail he started quite well. But from now on he can and must show that he was the right choice for the most successful team of the last 3 decades.

Does the old saying fit here?
This brings us to KTM’s second problem. A former motocross rider who has been in a wheelchair since his terrible accident. Even after years as head of sport at KTM, Pit Beirer doesn’t seem to understand MotoGP enough. He is reported to have recently claimed in an interview that the season starts in Jerez. Many observers already believe that the old adage “the fish stinks from the head” is possibly appropriate. Every viewer should decide for himself whether there is something in it. We fear that there is something to this because Jerez will soon be round four. This is probably one of the reasons why the oranges are threatened with falling into the third class again.

A good-humored Pit Beirer photographed by us at the Czech Grand Prix in Brno in 2018. The German continues to irritate fans and the public with a few statements, but apparently he is still firmly in the saddle at KTM. In any case, public criticism of Iker Lecuona from his side and Tech 3 team boss Poncharal indicate that the house blessing in the much-cited “KTM family” after 2020 should also hang badly wrong this season.

Championship stand in all classes before the 4th round in Jerez de la Frontera

From left to right the World Championship stand of MotoGP, Moto2 and Moto3 with some names that one would not have expected so far ahead before the start of the season, but supposed favorites very far behind.

The Jerez weekend is eagerly awaited

As far as the weather forecast is concerned, Fabio Quartararo in particular should breathe a sigh of relief. In between, just a few days ago, there was a threat of rain for the whole weekend. But according to the current forecast, this risk currently only exists for on Friday and at most with a probability of currently 30 percent, especially around lunchtime. Because the Frenchman is anything but a specialist in wet conditions, he is automatically one of the favorites in dry conditions as a double winner last year. The route has a peculiarity, which concealed the earlier weaknesses of Yamaha well, namely a comparatively very short start-finish straight compared to Losail (1068 m) and Portugal (969 m) with 607 meters. At the same time, this deprives the Ducati drivers of a significant advantage, which they were able to exploit in the first 3 races. From the paper version, the favorites should be Marquez, Quartararo, Viñales and Rossi, and Bagnaia, Rins, Miller and Zarco should not be ignored. The mention of the old master refers to his previous year’s result in order to clarify this in the margin. But, as has so often been the case recently, everything will turn out differently from what many experts had previously prophesied.

No more excuses – this time it’s serious
For Marc Marquez, there are no more excuses and his fans don’t want to try to get a 7th place with every result like in Portugal. The clear rule for all drivers is: If a driver is fit and is approved for the race, he will be measured by his results. In a few months and years later, looking at the statistics, no one is interested in the state of each individual pilot on his aircraft. In this respect, it is not of interest whether one person prepared with table football and another possibly with motocross training. Jorge Martin will be replaced by Tito Rabat as the only so far seriously injured driver in the premier class. He has a good chance of scooping championship points on the Ducati that he knew very well from last year (even if he drove the older model at the time).

Marc Marquez (Repsol Honda) 2020 in turn 3 on the Circuito de Jerez in the gravel – this time it will be a tightrope walk for the Spaniard as to how much risk he should and wants to take. His brother Aleix, who couldn’t get past him for the entire second half of the race at the Portuguese GP, underlined that he is sufficiently fit.

Schedule and TV program Jerez Grand Prix

At the time of our publication there was an error on the official MotoGP website and the Q1 of Moto2 was given as a duration of 25 minutes, which is of course wrong. This has of course already been corrected in our timetable.

Unless otherwise stated, this applies to all images (© MotoGP).